101. 2014 and the year ahead

Dear Gerard,

I have the honour of closing the series of articles for 2014. The year has gone by quickly. It is time to reflect on the highs and lows of 2014 and what we have learnt for 2015. Your analysis of Article No. 100 gives a good picture of the learning moments. I am grateful that I was able to write an article every two weeks. Reflecting on current events has been a challenge and I hope our readers and, especially new entrepreneurs, have been able to take advantage of the advice we gave.The continuing advance of IS in Iraq and Syria was the absolute low of 2014 for me. The violence and atrocities they have committed in the Middle East and beyond, makes us realize that an entirely democratic world is further away than ever. The excesses in Ukraine and Russia will also substantially increase defence budgets in the Western world. This is something to take into account for entrepreneurs.

The European funds which we manage returned a little under 3%, which is disappointing. After a bad period during December 2013 (massive fraud at the highest government level in Turkey) and January 2014 (collapse of the Argentine peso and the currencies of emerging countries), the performance of our EMEA Fund recovered by well over 40% in 2014. The sectors which I was mentioning in 2014 – dredging, construction, logistics and soft commodities have had a decent year in 2014, with reasonable turnover. Despite there being no major gains, they are well positioned for the next upturn in the economy.

The New Year will show if new investors will invest in products like ours, this will be affected by the slowly improving economy and continuing low savings rates in Western Europe. We are in discussion with young entrepreneurs regarding a smart product that market research companies believe will be competitive in Europe and in the US (see Article 99). We are also involved in initiatives in the area of housing for young people, the socially disadvantaged and the elderly where private investments seem possible in the short term.

A modest economic recovery in Europe, a low oil price, a lower euro and low interest rates are likely to lead to increasing consumer confidence. This will increase opportunities for entrepreneurs, who will need to keep their organizations flexible even in a growing economy. They should make sure that sound financing is in place and avoid reliance on banks. The most promising sectors will, in my view, be the food sector, broadcasting (permanently flexible organizations) and, I must reluctantly conclude, the banking sector (as they will receive free money from the central bank and margins will increase on mortgages, so cost reductions will be possible). The lurking dangers are insufficient structural change in France and Italy, a rise in interest rates, and escalations of violence in Russia and the extremist attacks of IS. There are certain to be new challenges in 2015 and we will have to be ready to act in order to exploit opportunities.

We wish all our readers and entrepreneurs a successful 2015 and, above all, good health to everyone and all your relatives.

Sincerely, for the last time in the old year,

Jan Stam